For want of a nail the shoe was lost.
For want of a shoe the horse was lost.
For want of a horse the rider was lost.
For want of a rider the battle was lost.
For want of a battle the kingdom was lost.
And all for the want of a horseshoe nail.

The ancient English nursery rhyme was hung on the wall of the Anglo-American Supply Headquarters in London during WWII. However, it illustrates more than the need for careful inventory replenishment. Crucial events in history have sometimes been dependent on seemingly small and inconsequential incidents, an aspect of the “law of unintended consequences,” –the missing nail that brings down the kingdom.

One illustration of the principle occurred in the year preceding the sailing of the Spanish Armada. King Phillip II of Spain, with the encouragement of the Pope, determined to invade England and put an end to the English Sea Dogs’ depredations upon Spanish shipping and bring that recalcitrant nation back to the fold of the Roman Catholic Church. Phillip was in the process of assembling a vast fleet when English Captain Sir Francis Drake suddenly appeared in the harbor of Cadiz and attacked, cannonaded, plundered and burned 37 naval and merchant ships as well as warehouses on the shore. One of the store-houses that went up in flames contained about 1600 tons of barrel staves and hoops. Ocean-going vessels were utterly dependent on seasoned barrels to hold food, water and wine. When the Armada sailed thirteen months later, they left port with new barrels which quickly leaked the water and spoiled the food. The Armada had to remain close to shore for resupply and the men on board had to suffer with lack of water and good food. The armada proceeded slowly with those handicaps, thus giving the English ships more time to prepare and, unknown to both antagonists, place them in the path of a devastating Atlantic storm. For want of barrels. . .

After crossing the Potomac River into Maryland, Confederate General Robert E. Lee divided his forces and wrote out the location of each group on dispatches for delivery to various commanders. Somehow, one of the troop disposition orders was wrapped around three cigars and accidentally dropped near a fence. The Union army camped near that spot a few days later and a soldier from Illinois, sitting down to rest, found the cigars on the ground with the record of enemy troop dispositions included. The alert soldier sent the dispatch up the chain of command till it reached the army commander, George B. McClellan. He now knew the exact location of his divided opponents. The result was the bloodiest single day in American history-the Battle of Sharpsburg (also known as Antietam). For want of proper cigar storage control . . .

For nearly 2,000 years such incidents were known as providences. Today the sophisticated historian who denies divine control of history, calls them luck, chance, fortune, or contingency. Gladly, I’m still unsophisticated.
Bill Potter